Image Source: The Atlantic
Scotland has had a strong tendency towards separatism for many years. According to Professor of Modern History, Ben Jackson, Scotland’s separatist nationalism began to take shape in the 1970s and achieved its current ideological maturity during the 80s and 90s. Among the incentives for autonomy, there has always been a need to break from the over-centralised government of the British state, which obstructs decision-making power and political progress. Economically, an independent Scotland was often thought to be a better alternative to the Union, since it would allow Scotland to manage its own economic policies, instead of depending on the United Kingdom’s interests. The recent withdrawal of the UK from the European Union revived and intensified the Scots' desire for independence. It not only emphasized England’s overpower in the Union, which undermined Scotland's vote to remain in the EU and defined the fate of its connection with Brussels, but it also exposed Scotland to severe consequences against its will. This lack of decision-making power exacerbated by Brexit was a powerful spur for bolstering separatist feelings and demands for a new independence referendum in Scotland.
Image Source: The Conversation. Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland.
In September 2014, the Scottish National Parliament led an independence referendum with the permission of Prime Minister David Cameron. In the end, Scots voted to stay in the UK with a minimal 10 percent margin, enough to reject any possibility for independence. Now, things have slightly changed. In 2016, the Brexit vote confirmed Scotland will to remain in the European Union with 62% support. However, since it was a UK-wide referendum, Scotland had to consent to whatever the UK decided, regardless of their interest as a country. Brexit negotiation was, for many, an abrupt move in which Scotland’s interests were dismissed. Consequently, this awakened a desire for independence, and a new referendum. Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, declared her commitment to finding a solution that would respect the Scottish electorate’s intention to remain connected with the EU and stated that Brexit transformed the political landscape, inevitably asking for a new referendum. Indyref2’s campaign was on its way to make this happen, but the obstacles are many, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson is one of them. Scotland can only launch a new referendum with the authorization of the UK government. This would, according to Section 30 under the Scotland Act, transfer temporary legislative power to the Scottish parliament so a referendum can take place. Boris Johnson has consistently reiterated his unwillingness to allow this to happen. In May’s election, the Scottish National Party allied with the Greens (both supporters of independence) won 72 of the 129 in the parliament. Launching a new independence referendum is on SNP’s agenda, and even though Boris Johnson opposes it, that won’t stop a bill from being passed and a challenge being created in Westminster by taking it to the courts. After the election, Nicola Sturgeon made it clear that the Covid-19 pandemic, the vaccination process, and economic recovery are the SNP and Greens' priorities in such vulnerable times. Nevertheless, the fight for a referendum is undoubtedly on the horizon.
Image Source: The Scotsman
There are all sorts of issues to be explored. Can Scotland arrange a special status with the European Union while being a part of the UK? Perhaps it could maintain an agreement on areas like agriculture, common fisheries, academic research, and student exchange (among others). Would England allow it? Or, if Scotland manages to leave the UK, would it become a new member state of the EU? In what terms? Some think that Spain and France would make it difficult for Scotland to become a member state, as they reject independence to Catalonia and Corsica, respectively. Moreover, the Anglo-Scottish border might become an issue if Scotland remains within the EU but out of the UK. All these matters represent foreign ground to Brussels, England, and Scotland. There are many unknowns, and recent studies do not expect a positive economic future for Scotland if the Union breaks. In other words, unfamiliar territory, complex predictions, and unpredictable consequences are the price Scotland has to pay if its 314-year-old Union is significantly altered or dismantled.
Sources:
-Jackson, Ben. The Case for Scottish Independence: A History of Nationalist Political Thought in Modern Scotland. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020.
-Rahmatian, Andreas. “Scottish Independence.” In European Regions: Perspectives, Trends and Developments in the 21st Century, edited by Elisabeth Donat, Sarah Meyer, Gabriele Abels, 99-117. Bielefeld: transcript-Verlag, 2020
-Hughes, Kirsty. “How Could Scotland Protect its EU Links After Brexit?” European Futures 48, (Nov. 2015).
Brilhante.