A brief history of Myanmar
Myanmar has been ruled by a military junta for many of the years since it gained independence from British colonial rule in 1948. After a short stint of parliamentary democracy in 1962, General Ne Win led a military coup and held power for the next 26 years. Ne Win instituted a new constitution in 1974 based on an isolationist policy and a socialist economic program that nationalised Burma’s major enterprises. As a result, the economic situation deteriorated rapidly, with a black-market economy taking hold.
By 1988, widespread corruption, food shortages and rapid shifts in economic policy related to Myanmar’s currency led to massive student-led protests. In August 1988, the army cracked down on protesters, killing at least three thousand and displacing thousands more. In the aftermath of this change in militia policy, Ne Win resigned as chairman of his party, although he remained active behind the scenes as another military junta took power. In 1989, the new military regime changed the country’s name from the Union of Burma to the Union of Myanmar. They pushed forward a new constitution in 2008 that is still in place today, giving the military widespread powers even under civilian rule. Unexpectedly, the junta officially dissolved in 2011 and a civilian parliament was established for a transitional period, during which former army bureaucrat and Prime Minister Thein Sein was appointed president.
However, the Tatmadaw military coup in February 2021 quickly dashed all hopes for democratic reforms, sending the country back to a oppressive regime. Nonetheless, their rule has been met with much opposition, causing violence to dramatically increase in Myanmar.
What exactly is going on?
The military have detained the leaders of the National League for Democracy and other civilian officials, including Suu Kyi and President U Win Myint, cabinet ministers, the chief ministers of several regions, opposition politicians, writers and activists. They quickly seized control of the country’s infrastructure, suspending most television broadcasts and cancelling domestic and international flights. Weeks of relatively peaceful protests quickly turned deadly on 20 February when two unarmed protesters were killed by security forces in Mandalay, one of whom was a 16-year-old boy. On 22 February, millions of people across the country took to the streets in a general strike. Since then, an expanded civil disobedience movement has paralysed the banking system and made it difficult for the military to assert their rule. Since the coup, nearly 1,300 people have been killed by the junta and more than 10,000 have been arrested. Among the protesters, there is a growing recognition that the Tatmadaw needs to be countered on its own terms. In the country’s jungles, people are training with firearms and hand grenades. According to the departing UN special envoy on Myanmar, the military's brutal regime is sending the country to the verge of a civil war. Four democratic activists were executed in July in what is believed to be the country’s first use of capital punishment in decades.
Unfortunately, the opposition has only led to more violence and destruction. In September, the National Unity Government declared war on the junta and formed an armed division named the People’s Defence Force. By late 2021, the military was destroying entire villages believed to support the opposition, massacring both civilians and their opponents. By January 2022, analysts reported that the clashes between these two political groups was occurring throughout the whole country. Notably, the violence is not limited to the areas with large ethnic minority populations found on Myanmar’s borders, but is also occurring in major central cities such as Mandalay and Yangon. The widespread violence has led thousands of civilians to flee into their neighbouring countries, India and Thailand.
Who is Aung San Suu Kyi?
Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of independence hero General Aung San, rose to prominence during the 1988 protests. After the crackdown, she and others formed the NLD opposition party. She was detained in 1989 and spent more than fifteen years in prison and under house arrest until her release in 2010. In 1991, Suu Kyi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize while still under house arrest. Suu Kyi became Myanmar’s de facto leader in 2015, although the constitution prevents her from assuming the title of president.
Although she continues to enjoy widespread domestic support, Suu Kyi has been internationally controversial as she tried to pacify the military by defending its abuses against the Rohingya - a Muslim ethnic minority group - and by restricting press freedoms. In 2019, she represented Myanmar at a trial in the International Court of Justice, at which she defended it against accusations of ethnic cleansing. Having been on house arrest since February 2021, Suu Kyi was accused of bribery and corruption, and sentenced to 23 years in prison. The sentence was recently increased by three years to a total of 26 years. In fact, she still faces a raft of other criminal charges, and if prosecuted for all, could face up to 150 years in prison. The Nobel Laureate has denied all accusations and called the trials a ‘scam’.
Why is this happening?
In 2011, President Thein Sein spearheaded a series of reforms: he granted amnesty to political prisoners, relaxed media censorship and implemented economic policies to encourage foreign investment. In 2015, Myanmar held its first nationwide multiparty elections - considered to be the freest and fairest elections in decades - since the country’s transition away from military rule. Suu Kyi’s opposition NLD (Nation League of Democracy) party won a landslide victory. In 2020, Myanmar held its second national elections under civilian rule, which the NLD party overwhelmingly won. However, it is thought that the elections were flawed, due to “the access to state media not being equal, government critics facing censorship or arrest, and Rohingya being denied participation in the vote” says Brad Adams the Asia director of the Human Rights Watch. The military suffered a major blow in the elections - the USDP (the military's proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party) won just 33 of 476 available seats. Military leaders alleged voter fraud, and after the country’s election commission rejected the military’s claims, it staged a coup in February 2021.
The Tatmadaw detained and charged Suu Kyi, as well as other members of the NLD, and announced that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing would take charge of Myanmar during a yearlong state of emergency. They said elections will be held once the state of emergency ends, but experts say that the military could retain power indefinitely.
Significantly, the 2008 constitution includes several provisions to protect the military’s dominance. For example, 25 percent of parliament’s seats are reserved for the military, and any changes to the constitution need approval from more than 75 percent of parliament, effectively giving the military veto power over any amendment, which the Tatmadaw uses to justify its actions. The document also allows the military to take control in any situation that could cause the “disintegration of the Union, disintegration of national solidarity, and loss of sovereign power." The military argued that the allegations of fraud in the elections fit this description.
What has been the international response?
Following the 2021 coup, President Joe Biden said his administration will work with U.S. partners to “support democracy and rule of law” in Myanmar. Urging military leaders to relinquish power and release people they captured, Biden warned that the United States could impose consequences on those responsible for the coup. The Biden administration, which has sought to elevate human rights as a foreign policy priority, announced sanctions in late March in coordination with the EU that named military officials and other entities in Myanmar for their violence against democracy advocates. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said the coup developments “represent a serious blow to democratic reforms in Myanmar”. Then Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said on Twitter that the “vote of the people must be respected and civilian leaders released”. Overall, foreign governments seem split over whether and how to engage with a group of elected lawmakers from the ousted administration, and organisations such as the UN have been left looking largely ineffectual and paralyzed by inaction.
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