When viewed from the outside, Canada as a nation gives many progressive-minded individuals the impression of being a beacon of hope for stability in this era of surging nationalism. As the United States grows more bitter with every passing day under a two-party system that has exacerbated polarization, Canadians, by comparison, often seem to have their affairs in order. Their prime minister is relatively moderate and, despite his approval rating not quite reaching the limits they did back in 2015, voters don’t yet seem prepared to replace him with his Conservative opposition.
With regards to issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, Justin Trudeau is largely seen as the antithesis of the previous four years of the Trump administration, pushing for public health guidelines to be followed and carbon emissions reduced. However, while once being the pride and joy of Canadians, the Trudeau government has since been the subject of scorn among the population, with significant backlash to their corruptionscandals, failures in pipeline construction and openness to immigration. This can be observed in the numerous provincial elections that have taken place, with Trudeau-friendly Liberal and NDP governments being systematically sunk by right-wing populist politicians. For example, in the oil-rich province of Alberta, Premier Jason Kenney of the United Conservative Party was swept to power with promises to balance the budget, abolish the unpopular carbon tax and actively fight environmentalist groups with the establishment of an oil “war room”. Other major anti-establishment victories include the installation of Doug Ford (brother of bold Toronto mayor Rob Ford) as Premier of Ontario and the victory of Quebec nationalist leader François Legault in that province.
While some believe all this is a product of the times, Canadian populism is not a new development. Throughout the years, in fact, many populist politicians of both the political left and right have held power in most provinces. On the one hand, the populist right has a long history of strength in the province of Alberta, where from 1935 to 2015 it was led by either the Christian-right influenced Social Credit Party or the Progressive Conservative party without interruption. While both parties were also popular in twentieth century British Columbia and Ontario, respectively, the sheer dominance of conservatism in Alberta was remarkable, to say the least.
When examining the populist left, the neighboring province of Saskatchewan also has significant. A watershed moment in Canadian history, the election of Premier Tommy Douglas in 1944 led to the first democratic socialist government in North America, as well as the first single-payer healthcare system to be enacted on the continent. Douglas led the province for 17 years before entering federal politics as head of the newly organized New Democratic Party (NDP) in 1961. By and large, the most interesting case study of Canadian populism is not necessarily “Canadian” at all, with Quebec populism being uniquely centered on establishing a separate, French identity. With leaders ranging from the Catholic nationalist Duplessis to the ardent progressive Lesage and the separatists Lévesque and Parizeau, the most distinct province in Canada has indeed experienced many waves of populism since even before the onset of World War II.
That said, if Canada has such a strong populist undercurrent that repeatedly rebuked Justin Trudeau at the provincial level, how could he have gotten reelected in 2019? Surely if he were so unpopular and reviled by many Canadians in the nation’s largest and most powerful provinces, he would have faced defeat. While he did in fact lose the popular vote, the first past the post electoral system coupled with opposition votes being split among five parties allowed the Liberals to return with a minority government. Other contenders such as the right-leaning Conservative Party and social-democratic NDP fared relatively well in terms of vote share but were unable to translate that support into seats, as the Trudeau Liberals took the largest number, but remained thirteen short of a majority. Another major factor would be the resurgence of the nationalist Bloc Québécois, who won over thirty seats appealing to supporters of the Legault government despite running exclusively in the francophone province and winning a mere seven percent of the national vote.
However, one could argue that another strong factor for this restoration of populism would be the lack of a viable political vehicle at the national level. When you look at the Trump campaign of 2016, it was rebuked by much of the Republican establishment, who once cast the movement as being completely outlandish from their values. He even received only 45% of the primary vote, which seems oddly low for the party who now extolls his every action. But because the two-party system relies on an open primary, any national political figure could make a run for one of the two major nominations and draw support from the party base in the general election. This exact situation also benefited Biden in the 2020 race. While most progressives spent the primary campaign stumping for Sanders or Warren, the entire party ended up coalescing around Biden in the general election, despite their relentless criticism of him.
In Canada, this entryism is quite difficult, with most parties relying on ranked ballot voting to select a leader who serves indefinitely. Even a popular candidate like former Conservative MP Maxime Bernier can spend the whole leadership campaign at the forefront of the 2017 race, even leading on twelve of thirteen ballots, yet he eventually lost and was excluded from decision-making. On the other hand, the task of creating a successful political party from scratch to challenge the status quo is positively herculean, with the need to set up riding associations in at least 170 districts across the country if a majority government is the goal. We saw this first-hand with Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party (PPC), formed in 2018. While he was able to scrape together associations in nearly every district and field over 300 candidates, he still received but 1.6% of the vote nationally. To add insult to injury, the party was also dogged by repeat discoveries of alt-right infiltration attempts and the support of white nationalists such as Paul Fromm, thanks to the lack of vetting and poor organization in the early days. (In Bernier’s defense, he did repeatedly reject their support and disavow their goals.) This led to the party and Bernier himself being typecast as the standard bearers of Trumpism in Canada, cemented by their opposition to further immigration, rejection of the scientific consensus on climate change and support for extensive curtailment of international activities. Once a staunch opponent of Trump’s political strategy, even going as far as to call one of his 2017 opponents “Karaoke Donald Trump”, he has since embraced it to further his libertarian economic policy.
While the PPC vote share in 2019 was admittedly dismal, Bernier and company seem to have seized the populist opportunity of a lifetime: COVID-19 lockdowns. Make no mistake, opposition to restrictions at the provincial level is quite fierce, whether it be a BBQ restaurant in Toronto or the congregation at GraceLife church in Alberta. With provincial leaders such as Doug Ford having attempted the introduction of extreme measures such as drastically increasing police authority in Ontario, is it any wonder large crowds are defying lockdown orders? With large protests having taken place in cities such as Peterborough and Barrie, even reaching sizes of nearly 30 000 in Montreal, it is clear a sizeable portion of Canadians have grown tired of mandatory masks and social distancing. While such gatherings are clearly violating guidelines devised to contain a deadly virus, one must wonder how far a governmental power grab can go before citizens are morally obligated to step up. Those who decry protestors as being irresponsible and selfishly demonstrating for their right to a haircut may not realize the broader implications of granting a government this much control, including a swelling of the potential populist wave. While such protests may currently be seemingly unreasonable and frankly unnecessary, they may very well be the canary in the coal mine. Federally speaking, as they have had more time to organize with figures such as MPP Randy Hillier and forming a “No More Lockdowns Caucus”, the Bernier wing of Canadian conservatism could pose more of a threat for Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives, who have been styling themselves as a moderate government-in-waiting for Canada. Provincially, similar dynamics are beginning to take hold, with Western separatists in Alberta and Saskatchewan starting to gain traction and the formation of the anti-establishment New Blue party in Ontario preparing to dig into the heart of “Ford Nation”. While incumbent premiers such as Kenney and Ford are more likely to see their demise at the hands of liberals and the left, these new populists could be a deciding factor if things come down to the wire.
So, what exactly is there to be said about populism in Canada? Historically, it has seen much success and dissatisfaction with COVID measures could soon rock the electoral boat. But when we observe the fruits of previous efforts, Canadian electoral practices will likely pose a challenge to these movements. With so much competition against Trudeau these days, however, the debate in the opposition parties might no longer be one of ideology, but one of pragmatism versus principle, considering many members of established parties grow tired of their leaders. As Canada ramps up its vaccination program, support for Trudeau will likely increase, but with so many having been radicalized after over a year inside, Canadian politics may see a fiery new chapter.
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