Why is the Arctic Circle a region of importance?
Now, this remote wilderness is changing. The disastrous effects of global warming have melted the polar ice caps and access to resources, tens of trillions of dollars worth. There are fish to feed growing populations, and fossil fuels within reach in an era of dwindling reserves as global industry continues to depend on the old ways of producing energy. The climate crisis is having a sharp impact on the world’s economies and is fast becoming a strategic concern as weather patterns shift. Polar ice is receding at an accelerating rate and some estimates predict that the Arctic will be completely free of summer sea ice by as early as 2035. It is now possible for ships to sail through the Arctic on their way to and from Europe and northern Asia during the summer months.
Six countries surround the Arctic Ocean, perched on the top of the world: Russia, Canada, the United States, Denmark, Norway and Iceland.
This ease of access to the region presents major economic opportunities both for commercial shipping using the northwest passage over the top of Canada and the northeast passage over the top of Russia, shaving thousands of kilometres off each journey. Furthermore, according to some estimates, up to one-quarter of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas might be located there.
The increased international competition has spurred military spending and the deployment of specialised forces to the region to protect claims and each country’s own interests.The race is on between countries surrounding the Arctic to assert claims in the area and the vital resources beneath the ocean’s surface. The country dominating this race is Russia.
What are the existing claims?
The Arctic region is defined by U.S. policy as all land and ocean north of the Arctic Circle (approximately 66.5° N latitude) plus the Aleutian Islands, the Bering Sea, and portions of western Alaska. Eight nations have territory in the region: Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States (via Alaska)
These countries share many interests, including the need to cooperate on search-and-rescue missions, enforce maritime safety regulations, and preserve the well-being of indigenous Arctic communities. However, there are growing divisions between Russia and the rest of the Arctic nations. China’s increasing assertiveness in the region also adds to the tension
There is also no single governing body for the Arctic. However, there are several organisations that loosely cooperate. The most successful has been the Arctic Council, a forum of the eight Arctic nations. The council’s work centres on environmental monitoring, support for indigenous communities, and emergency response; it does not deal with national security issues.
Arctic states are also competing to control the seabed: melting ice has made mineral deposits and oil- and gas fields more accessible. To stake a claim beyond their territorial waters, which stretches 12 nautical miles from shore, countries must prove the seabed is an extension of their continental shelf—part of the same land mass as their territory. The geology is subjective: Canada, Denmark and Russia all claim the Lomonosov Ridge, an underwater mountain range that runs beneath the North Pole.
Some countries have gone to extremes to prove their point. In 2007, a Russian submarine planted a titanium ‘trikolor’ flag on the seabed beneath the pole.
In 2013, Canada issued a passport to Father Christmas. Such gestures might seem light-hearted, but alongside the increased military activity they constitute a real effort by governments to stake their claims. For now, Russia has the uppermost hand.
What is Russia’s involvement?
In 2021, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, claimed that his country controls the Arctic. “It has been absolutely clear for everyone for a long time that this is our territory,” he said. Russian land makes up 53% of the Arctic coastline. Russia has also ramped up its military investment in the region: since 2007 at least 50 Soviet-era military outposts have reopened.
Russia is rebuilding its military capabilities and modernising its regional military infrastructure by using a ‘double dual’ approach: Arctic infrastructure is being used for civilian and military purposes (dual-use), while Russia is also blurring the lines between offensive and defensive intent (dual-purpose).
The practical implication of this is that Russia is maximising its options in terms of technology and capabilities.
The Ukraine invasion has also complicated matters. The major deterioration of Russia-West relations following the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has severely affected cooperation in the Arctic and led to a pause in Arctic Council activities. Seven of the Arctic Council member states condemned Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, while many other Arctic organisations suspended working with Russia.
Russian polar politics are informed by the construction of external threats to national interests. In the Arctic, the main threat perception relates to the fear of ‘encirclement’ by NATO and its allies. In the context of Russia’s invasion, and of the accession to NATO membership of Finland and Sweden, this fear seems more relevant than ever.
And China?
Though it makes no territorial claims there, China considers itself a ‘near-Arctic state’ with the right to conduct scientific research, pursue economic resources, and play an active role in governance in the region. China sees the Arctic as part of its worldwide infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative, and refers to its presence there as the ‘Polar Silk Road’. China’s influence has only grown: Chinese scientists play a large role in Arctic research, it has developed the capacity to build icebreaking ships for exploration, and it conducts Arctic patrols with its expanding fleet.
Russia and China relations have thrived due to shared Western condemnation. In 2014, Russian energy giant Gazprom and the CNPC signed a $400 billion agreement that shipped gas from the Russian Arctic to China. Although Europe remains Russia’s largest energy export market, Russia is using such deals to diversify gas trading partners with Asian countries, reducing its reliance on the West.
This relationship, and China’s increasingly active role in the region, could heighten the great-power rivalry with the United States and raise tensions with other Arctic nations.