On the 3rd of November 2022 the infamous war, battled between the Ethiopian Federal Government and Eritrea on one side, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), came to an end after two years of fighting and years of hostility. Can such a deeply rooted conflict end in the matter of just one day?
Fundamentally, the conflict dates back to the 1970s when the TPLF and EPLF overthrew the previous communist People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia to form the Federal Republic of Ethiopia. Although the initial rule of the TPLF brought some amount of economic prosperity to Ethiopia, the oppressive and repressive authoritarian rule was corrupt, as demonstrated by the rigged 2015 elections it claimed to win.
When Abiy Ahmed then came to power in 2018, he was quick to reverse many things the TPLF had done; he released political prisoners from secret prisons, brought back many people who had been exiled, removed many TPLF officers from their positions and implemented changes to reduce the dominance the TPLF had in the army. Abiy did not stop there. Making peace agreements with Eritrea, former enemies of the TPLF, not only for geopolitical reasons, increased tensions between Abiy and the TPLF immeasurably, Eritrea being directly above Tigray. Failed attempts to form a coalition between the TPLF and Abiy’s Prosperity Party sustained tensions which continued to fuel the TPLF’s contempt.
This all came to a head when the TPLF attacked a federal military base in Tigray in 2020, causing the once ‘peaceful’ Abiy to launch an offensive. An onslaught of events occurred, mainly in the Tigray region: airports, schools and hospitals were targeted by both sides, torture and sexual and gender based violence became commonplace and a famine swept throughout the nation. Today 13 million people are classified as under acute food insecurity in Ethiopia and in Tigray alone 89% need food aid. 500,000 people have fled the country in fear, with 60,000 having fled to Sudan. It is needless to say that the repercussions of the Tigray war have been astronomical.
Abiy’s international support, for instance in the form of drones from countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Iran was symbolic of his overall advantage over the Tigray forces, internationally recognised as the legitimate leader of Ethiopia. Similarly, he had received a $300 million grant from the World Bank which also helped facilitate his actions during the war. On the other hand, the TPLF had only the OLA and small militias to support it, with the comparatively negative international reputation as a perpetrator under the Global Terrorism Database due to its actions of the late 20th century. Perhaps, therefore, it is unsurprising that it all just became too much for both sides to sustain, in particular the Tigrayan side.
On the 7th of September, Debretsion Gebremichael, chairperson of the TPLF sent a letter to the UN informing it of the TPLF’s wishes for peace. After a series of delays and much anticipation, peace talks commenced on the 25th of October while the world held its breath. In the end, both the TPLF and the Federal Republic of Ethiopia agreed to withdraw their troops from Tigray and call for a ceasefire. This would have been unheard of two years ago and is a monumental progression within the conflict. The agreement contains the details of the objectives of the peace, such as the end of ‘all forms of hostilities’, the protection of civilians and the allowance of humanitarian aid to enter the country. Among the confidence-building measures, the government has also agreed to stop branding the TPLF as ‘terrorists’.
Nevertheless, the implementation of these objectives will remain a difficult feat to accomplish. Although the USA has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in aid, there is still much that needs to be done. Talks such as the ones in Nairobi, Kenya have taken place, in order to establish a plan for allowing humanitarian aid to enter the country, and have proved quite successful; the Red Cross announced the arrival of medical supplies in Mekelle, with the World Food Programme and the WHO having sent 18,000 metric tonnes of aid. Even so, food shortages persist, with the unemployment rate at 23% and the losses of roughly 600,000 lives weighing down on the people of Ethiopia. Additionally, the question of Eritrea and its involvement in the war has not been discussed in any of the talks and remains a pressing issue and potential source of future conflict; Noé Hochet-Bodin described it as a ‘shadow [that] looms over the conflict’.
Among other issues that have been under discussed is the accountability for both parties’ crimes against humanity. As Muleya Mwananyanda, the Director for East and Southern Africa stated:
“The accord fails to offer a clear roadmap on how to ensure accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity”
Women and girls have been among the most severely affected, as victims of sexual abuse, sexual slavery and rape. One victim, Letay stated:
‘I don’t know if they realised I was pregnant. I don’t know if they realised I was a person.’
The failure of the agreement to deal with these human rights issues and hold criminals accountable for their actions, is representative of how the agreement has so far failed in practicality, even if the ideals are good. The government must now work hard to reverse the damage it has caused, ripping its country in half and stripping its people of their natural rights.
Sources:
Tigray People's Liberation Front - Wikipediahttps://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Tigray_People's_Liber…
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