Israel and Lebanon have reached a landmark maritime deal which signals a new era of possible cooperation between the countries which are still technically at war. This agreement, brokered by the USA, gives both countries access to various gas fields within previously contested Mediterranean waters. Most significantly, we see two countries working together who have had no direct relations and have engaged in various wars over the past 70 years.
These two countries have undergone a long and conflict-ridden relationship. Initially, Lebanon was seen as Israel’s calmest neighbour until the start of Palestinian attacks from the Lebanese border into Israel initiated. These attacks started in the 1960s and were one of the many factors that led to Israeli interference in the Lebanese Civil War. The civil war lasted from 1975-1990 during which Israel invaded in 1978, launching an attack against the Palestinian militia within the country. Some experts believe this was after an assassination attempt on the Israeli prime minister Shlomo Argov, which was blamed on the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Israel occupied parts of Lebanon from 1982 until 2000, eventually leaving after facing harsh guerrilla backlash, mainly from Hezbollah. In 2006, one of the more recent steps in this bloody relationship occurred when Israel and Hezbollah fought a month-long war. This led to over 1,500 deaths of which the majority were Lebanese civilians. Although tensions have fluctuated ever since, there have been frequent missiles launched from both sides across the border.
The maritime deal has been in the making since 2011 due to both countries continually claiming ownership over a small strip of the Mediterranean. Contestations over its ownership began once the area proved to have the potential of being economically beneficial as the area was found to be gas rich. Intermittent negotiations led by Amos Hochstein, a US mediator, restarted in October 2020. This pact takes the form of two separate agreements through Washington as neither country was willing to work directly with the other. As shown in the figure below, both countries proposed their ideal version of the line, Lebanon hoped for line 29. In the end line 23 was agreed, giving Israel right to the 860 km² Karish field and Lebanon has rights to the Qana Field. However, Lebanon will have to pay royalties to Israel for use of this field. Additionally, the deal has American security guarantees that none of Lebanon’s profits will reach Hezbollah. This contingency is crucial for Israel as it considers Hezbollah its most direct threat.
Map of the maritime deal
Hezbollah works closely with the Lebanese Government, and many speculate this has been a key factor in the lack of sustained cooperation between Lebanon and Israel. Tensions flared up over the summer when Hezbollah threatened Israel with disruption if Israel started drilling in Karish before the deal was finalized. The group then fired rockets toward an Israeli rig, sparking outroar from many Israeli politicians including Netanyahu, who was not yet re-elected at the time. He claimed the then Israeli Prime Minister Lapid had ‘folded’ and was rewarding Hezbollah with this deal, he stated that once he was re-elected, he would close this deal; however, he has yet to follow up on this. The reluctance on both sides internally also makes this deal so significant, the Lebanese president convinced Hezbollah that this deal was the right decision for the country and former Prime minister Lapid worked against heavy backlash from the right to move the deal along.
There are other factors which make this deal so important and these mainly link to Lebanon’s financial insecurity. The country is facing a crippling economic crisis and their new availability to drill in the Qana field could give hope to the country. This is economic instability is said to have influenced Hezbollah to support the Lebanese government as sources claim that they said privately that they wish to avoid conflict at a time when ¾ of their population lives in poverty. The real impact of Lebanon’s control over the Qana field will not be felt for at least a few years as it will take time to develop the rigs and start the process of extracting gas. This makes it hard to gage whether this deal is really going to help the current financial crisis or whether it will worsen it if it suffers the resource curse.
Overall, this deal could signify a turn in the history of the two countries and perhaps even hopes for negotiations over their disputed land border. The immediate impact will be harder to tell, Israel already has most of the equipment in place to extract gas whereas Lebanon is still somewhat behind the curve. However, cooperation between these two countries technically in a state of war will massively improve relations in the region and change their relationship.
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