The Democrat hopes of winning the Lone Star State and their ultimate failure to do so.
Texas has 38 electoral votes, the second greatest number after California’s 55. Since California has voted for the Democrat candidate for the past 7 elections, by steadily increasing majorities, they were never expected to be a battleground or swing state in the 2020 presidential elections. Texas, on the other hand, was classified a battleground state in this year’s election cycle due to the decreasing point margins of past Republican wins. This made Texas the most influential battleground state in the election, whichever side won Texas would win 38 of the 270 votes needed to win the presidency. The last time Texas ‘went blue’ and voted the Democrat candidate for the presidential election was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter ran. When Carter ran for a second term in 1980, Texas voted Republican and has continued to do so since.
Turning Texas blue would have destabilised the ‘red power’ in Texas. Due to its status as a Republican stronghold, many Democrats in Texas have effectively given up trying to make an impact, since they feel all their attempts have failed. In the words of Emily Farris, a professor at Texas Christian University, ‘Democrats just simply didn’t have the number to really make much of an impact’. As a result, voting numbers in Texas are some of the lowest in the USA, with a 51.1% turnout in the 2016 presidential election (the fifth lowest state turnout of that year). If Texas went blue even just for one cycle, it would show Texas’ Democrats their votes could actually make a difference. As a result of this realisation, we would have likely seen an increased voter turnout in future elections, especially of Democratic voters who previously hadn’t seen a point in voting.
Biden’s campaign spent $6 million on TV ads in Texas, and Michael Bloomberg added another $15 million towards the end of the race. Biden also received the endorsement and support of Julián Castro, the only major Latino candidate in this cycle’s Democratic presidential nomination race, to help boost support within the Latinx community, which composes around 38.2% of Texas’s population. And whilst one could assume from Texas’ history of Republican leadership that Trump would have had the advantage of support from past senators, it was surprising to see that current senator Ted Cruz was the only living Texas senator to publicly support Trump in this election cycle. Both Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn have voiced disagreements with Trump in the past.
As a result of these factors combined with the figures, many believed Texas could go blue. James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project, told The Atlantic Texas was ‘much more competitive than we’ve seen for 20 years’. When Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, was asked if this was the year Texas would turn blue, he replied, ‘hell yes’. However, when the results that came between November 3rd and 4th it quickly became apparent that the Democrats had failed to turn Texas blue this election cycle, with Trump winning 52.2% of the vote and Biden only 46.4%. So, where did Biden fault?
Exit polls show Biden won the Hispanic vote in Texas by only 19 points, an 8% drop from Hillary Clinton’s 27-point margin in 2016. Trump was also successful in heavily Hispanic counties, flipping Zapata County to Republican by a 5-point margin this year and reducing the Democratic lead in Starr County from 60 points in 2016 to 5 points in 2020. Biden’s failure to secure the Latinx vote came as a result from his weak and delayed campaigning - it was only the week before the election that Biden finally began advertisement in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. In addition, Biden’s lack of spending weakened his campaign, with the chair of the Texas Democratic Party, Gilberto Hinojosa, being said to have received only $15,000 for get-out-the-vote efforts. Another huge factor was Biden’s decision to restrict his campaign due to Covid-19, whilst Trump continued full force ahead[16]. When Republicans were campaigning door to door in Texas, the Democrats stayed inside and lost the chance at influencing valuable voters.
Where does the Democrat campaign go from here? The failure to flip Texas and to secure the Latinx vote highlights not only campaign failures but systemic problems- the appeal of the ‘American Dream’ promise offered to the immigrant population by the Republicans, the decline of the Venezuelan and Cuban vote due to Trump’s tactic of harnessing their fear of communism. All that said, there is one aspect of this election’s results that the Democrats can look hopefully on. The exceptional voter turnout this year, with 66% of registered voters casting ballots, is a possible indicator of higher turnouts in future elections. Just by classifying Texas as a battleground state, showing the Texas Democrats there was a fight to be had, we can hope they realised the significance of their vote and their ability to make a difference.
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