As of Sunday 25th September Giorgia Meloni will become the first female Italian Prime Minister in history. Representing the far right “Fratelli d’Italia” (Brothers of Italy), she has been frequently compared to the previous fascist leader of Italy, Benito Mussolini, but some argue her policies resemble those of the 45th President of the US, Donald Trump. However, the key question on everyone's mind is what should we expect for the future of Italy and the EU as a whole?
Meloni pictured after winning the general election
In the 2022 Italian general elections the key opposing candidates were Enrico Letta of the Democratic Party (19% of voters) and Giuseppe Conte (former prime minister of Italy) of the Five Star Movement (15% of voters). However, in most regions of Italy, with the exception of certain areas within Emilia-Romagna, Toscana and Campania, the overriding majority voted for Meloni, establishing the most right wing government that has been seen since the Second World War.
Her main campaign focused on recovering from the current state of the economy, particularly the effects that have been a consequence of the Russo-Ukraine War. She openly stated that she wanted to renegotiate the recovery plan that was put in place by the previous prime minister Giuseppe Conte. However, her opponents argued this could risk vital and necessary funds, even her coalition partner Silvio Berlusconi came forward to call this plan “illogical” in terms stabilising the economy. For the recovery plan to be successful, Italy will need to borrow $750 billion from Belgium to fund this scheme. Even this may not be enough due to the rising costs of raw materials, meaning that Italy could fail to make the same quantity of goods compared to previous years. This in turn could reduce the number of exports that Italy will be able to supply to other countries, negatively impacting the economy and the national GDP.
Furthermore, with Meloni in power, Italians will be the ones to experience the drastic effects first-hand, especially the LGBTQ+ community, who have already been deemed "unacceptable". She not only presents herself as a defender of Christian values, but also as an enemy of the "gender ideology" and the "LGBT lobby". There has been an understandable increase in fear that Meloni will curb the individual human rights of people, particularly after her party’s cultural spokesman openly stated last week that gay couples “should not be legal”. About 63% of Italians support gay marriage and the overturning of same sex civil unions and further restrictions for same sex couples would undeniably have drastic impacts on the lives of many.
Moreover, Meloni has previously stated that though she believes in enforcing Law 194, which “protects conscientious objection on condition that it doesn't lead to a disruption of service, but it doesn't set a maximum number of objectors per hospital or clinic”, she has also been open about her pro-life views on child birth. In the South of Italy, this will have severe health impacts as due to the current lack of effective healthcare systems, many women will be forced to turn to unsafe and unsanitary methods of abortion, increasing the fatality rate in comparison to its Northern counterpart. Furthermore, Law 194 though addressing the improvement in lack of disruptions within healthcare, it does not address the protection of abortion, this fear of overturning abortions has impacted the lives of many.
People protest against price rises at a demonstration in Naples
When exploring what this means for the EU, all we must do is look at Guido Crosetto, one of the founders of Fratelli D’Italia, who is a strong supporter of the “Italexit" movement, an imitation of name given to Brexit. These anti-EU ideals took place after the coalition with Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. This could mean that Italy will leave the EU, resulting in a drastic impact on other economies such as France, which already relies 14% of all its imports on Italy and the UK. This suggests that a change of currency - going back to the lira - could be in Italy's near future, making the idea of stabilising the banking crisis a distant one, most likely the crisis will persist, especially within the EU economy. On the same point, the inflation rate within Italy will rise causing the debt crisis to deepen.
However, as of now, this is still all speculative and as of 2022, no action has been taken towards putting the “Italexit” movement in motion. There is also much that could transpire in terms of civil rights, the economic state of Italy and its neighbouring nations, as well as the political state of the world and the stability of the EU. All that is certain is that Meloni's ascent to President of Italy will be not be placid.
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